The 38th season of Survivor is heading into it’s finale, with a final five set to be shaken up with one more castaway returning from the Edge of Extinction. As one castaway fights for his life, the others now need to navigate each other…
The Tribe Has Spoken…
Every other time Aurora was in trouble, it was usually mostly her own fault. But the night she actually got voted out, it was because everyone else blew it. It was likely that Lauren convinced Victoria and Gavin to save Julie and get rid of Aurora anyway, but Rick’s “fake-play-an-idol-on-Julie” move looks like it worked without knowing everything that went on behind the scenes. If they fell for his trick, shame on them. If they didn’t, shame on them anyway. Rick needs to be taken out, but he keeps winning these damn immunity challenges to save himself. Aurora was clearly the most likely to beat him, especially if there were no word puzzles in the upcoming challenge. Losing Aurora hurts a lot because she was by far the most entertaining castaway this season. She struggled to make friends due to her gave no craps attitude, but that attitude managed to keep her around as well. Aurora didn’t care if she offended anyone or rubbed people the wrong way, but her direct approach actually got most people to end up respecting her and sticking with her. Aurora reminds me a lot of my sister, which may be why it was so sad to see her go. She deserved better than what her tribemates gave her, but luckily still has a shot on the Edge of Extinction.
Final Five Rankings
1. Rick
You can say one thing for Rick Devens: he loves Survivor. He may not be the best player, but he is definitely having the most fun of anyone in the past few years. Rick is getting credit for making moves that he had no real part in since he is playing everything up to the jury, who clearly like him. Lauren and Victoria took charge of getting Ron out, but Rick somehow got the credit. Lauren again convinced her allies to turn on Aurora, but Rick’s theatrics overshadowed her move. It really seems like their plan was to vote Aurora out anyway, but the jury sees it more as Rick tricking them into not voting Julie. So does Rick deserve to win? Probably, mostly due to how he has been able to keep himself safe for weeks when he was the primary target. But he has not actively put himself in the lead. He has been able to take credit for the moves of others, which is totally fair and he deserves the win if it works, but Lauren or Victoria could pull off a stellar Final Tribal speech to show the jury what was really going on. Unlikely, but possible.
2. Lauren
As mentioned above, Lauren will have a lot of work to do to prove to the jury that she has been behind the last three big moves, but she can totally do it. Wardog, Ron, and Aurora all fell mostly at her hand, but Rick got the credit. Getting him out is her primary goal now because if he goes, she wins this game. Lauren still has an idol, which should keep her safe into the final four, but Wentworth spilled the beans about the idol to everyone at the Edge of Extinction. Somehow that feels like it could come into play when one player returns. If a smart enough player returns, they could try to convince Lauren not to play her idol and vote her out. But Lauren seems savvy enough to know that if you have an idol at the end, play the damn thing no matter what. Stay safe into the final four. She can totally win this game.
3. Gavin
Basically the only reason Gavin is above Victoria in these rankings is because he has been more vocal about his involvement in these moves. With Rick and Lauren likely safe next week, Gavin will need to rely on his challenge skills to make it through safely. Julie and Rick are the obvious targets, but if one or both are safe, Gavin and Victoria will be in massive danger. If Gavin wins immunity, he has a more likely chance to make it to the end because we know the moves he has made. He has been a surprisingly physical threat lately, so immunity is definitely on the table. Gavin has good relationships with Lauren and Victoria as well, so he would have a solid chance of being spared from the firemaking challenge if one of those two won immunity. His alliance can keep him safe, but the challenges will be key to Gavin’s survival.
4. Victoria
It’s not Victoria’s fault that her chances to win are falling, but she may be playing too cold. Her strategy has been to make alliances, but not really feel too much for her allies so she can cut them lose when needed. But that strategy is kind of boring. Victoria has been playing really well and voted correctly on every single vote (except last week, where she voted for Rick just to split the votes, but had a hand in getting Ron out), but she has not been vocal and clear about her involvement in these plans. While Lauren has friends in the jury in Wentworth and Wardog, Victoria’s lack of real connections may cost her. She, like Lauren, will need to nail it to convince the jury that Rick has not been behind every big move, but its more of an uphill climb without guaranteed sympathy on the jury.
5. Julie
At this point, it seems like everyone wants to drag Julie to the end because they all think they can win sitting next to her. That is not a good sign for her own chances to win. It seems likely that Julie will make it to the final four at least, either by virtue of Rick playing an idol on her or just the threat of him doing that. She can probably even make it to the final three if, say, Lauren wins immunity and decides to take Julie and force two of Rick, Victoria, and Gavin to make fire. There are plenty of ways for Julie to get to the end, but very few to win. She’s in a tough spot because she has not really done anything except explode at one Tribal. If she had not done that and attached herself to the sinking ship of Ron so early, she may have a better shot. But at this point, she is the goat.
Full Rankings
With just one episode left and one more player to return from the Edge of Extinction, it’s time to consider just who that might be. Aurora is the obvious favorite; she is the most recent to journey to the Edge, she is still fully in game mode, she has been fed better than the rest of these players, and she is just plain good at challengers. Joe is right behind Aurora, just because he is Joey Amazing. You have to expect either of them to be right in contention for the win. It seems pretty safe to write of Julia, Reem, and Ron. Julia and Ron were never particularly good at challenges and Reem has been the Edge since day 3. She is dedicated to trying to return, but she just might not have enough energy to compete properly after eating so little for thirty-something days. Wardog is a pretty safe bet to lose as well just because, well, Wardog really, really sucks at challenges.
The wild cards here all rest in the middle. Eric and Chris are both physical threats, but Chris has been at the Edge for a very long time and Eric was very close to raising the sail and going home. They could definitely pull it off, but both have uphill climbs. David has been surprisingly good at challenges this season, while Wentworth has been surprisingly bad. She has the potential to win, while David cannot be counted out now, so they both serve as solid threats. Aubry is the biggest question mark here. She has been at the Edge for a while now, but she also found the advantage that allows her to practice the challenge. She has had that ability for quite a while now, so it all depends if it can pay off. She is not great at challenges, but having the knowledge of what it could consist of and some sort of strategy going into it should give her a boost over some of the more obviously stronger players. It will still be difficult for anyone to compete with Aurora and Joe, but Aubry’s practice gives her a secret edge.
A Storm of Sports 